“Fear driving Chinese state to threaten global security” warns GCHQ

Fleming said that the Chinese leadership is using its financial and scientific muscle in a bid to dominate strategically important technologies, from digital currencies through to satellite technology. While the UK and its allies seek science and ‘tech’ advancement to enable prosperity, the CCP wield it as a “tool to gain advantage through control of their markets, of those in their sphere of influence and of their own citizens,” noted Fleming.

Further, Fleming highlighted the paradox that China’s “great strength combined with fear is driving China into actions that could represent a huge threat to us all”. Warning of the immediacy of the threat, he said now is a “sliding doors moment in history” that “will define our future”. The science and ‘tech’ community in like-minded countries “must act to tackle it”.

Addressing an invited audience at the Science Gallery in London, Sir Jeremy Fleming observed: “The Chinese leadership believes it draws its strength and authority from the closed, one-party system. They seek to secure their advantage through scale and through control. This means they see opportunities to control the Chinese people rather than looking for ways in which to support and unleash their citizens’ potential. They see nations as either potential adversaries or potential client states to be threatened, bribed or coerced.”

He continued: “The Party has bet its future on this approach, shutting off the many alternative futures for the Chinese people in the process. They hope that future success, based on this system, will be inevitable. I think underlying that belief is a sense of fear. Fear of its own citizens, freedom of speech, free trade, open technological standards and alliances: the whole open, democratic order and the international rules-based system. It’s no surprise that, while the Chinese nation has worked to build its advanced economy, the Party has used its resources to implement draconian national security laws, a surveillance culture and the increasingly aggressive use of military might.”

In addition, Fleming stated: “We’re seeing that fear play out through the manipulation of the technological ecosystems which underpin our everyday lives, from monitoring its own citizens and restricting free speech through to influencing financial systems and new domains.”

Seeking leverage

Fleming highlighted certain technologies as examples of the way in which the Chinese state is trying to seek leverage, both at home and abroad. These include Central Bank digital currencies, the BeiDou satellite system, international ‘tech’ standards and smart cities.

Central Bank digital currencies could allow the state to monitor the transactions of its citizens and companies. He also warned the Chinese state was “learning the lessons” from the war in Ukraine and a centralised digital currency could “enable China to partially evade the sort of international sanctions currently being applied to Putin’s regime in Russia”.

The BeiDou satellite system has been “used as a lever to force Chinese citizens and businesses to adopt” as well as exporting it around the world. Sir Jeremy said: “Many believe that China is building a powerful anti-satellite capability, with a doctrine of denying other nations access to space in the event of a conflict. There are fears the technology could be used to track individuals.”

In terms of international ‘tech’ standards, he cited an example of Chinese industry proposing new principles, which would threaten the freedom of the Internet by reducing its interoperability and causing the fragmentation of systems. He said the hand of the Chinese state can be detected in the moves for a model with greater governmental control and which “threatens Human Rights by the introduction of new tracking methods”.

With the wrong technology, smart cities have the potential to export surveillance and data.

“Client economies and Governments”

In addition, Fleming warned how China is seeking to create “client economies and Governments” by exporting technology to countries around the world. According to Fleming, these countries risk “mortgaging the future” by buying in Chinese ‘tech’ with “hidden costs”.

While highlighting the challenge, Fleming urged key players in the science and technology community to “think beyond the illusion of the inevitable” and “recognise that creating an alternative, competitive and compelling offer for technology is an opportunity for the whole of society we cannot afford to miss”.

Sir Jeremy stated: “At GCHQ, there are times when it’s our privilege and duty to see the sliding door moments of history. This feels like one of those moments. Our future strategic technology advantage rests on what we as a community do next. I’m confident that, together, we can tilt that in our nation’s favour.”

During the speech, Fleming also addressed the war in Ukraine: “Far from the inevitable Russian military victory that its propaganda machine spouted, it’s clear that Ukraine’s courageous action on the battlefield and in cyber space is turning the tide. Having failed in two major military strategies already, Putin’s plan has hit the courageous reality of Ukrainian defence.”

Continuing this theme, Fleming asserted: “With little effective internal challenge, Putin’s decision-making has proven to be flawed. It’s a high stakes strategy that’s leading to strategic errors in judgement. Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia – in both people and equipment – are staggering. We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out. Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.”

In addition, Fleming said: “The Russian population has started to understand that, too. They’re seeing just how badly Putin has misjudged the situation. They’re fleeing the draft, realising they can no longer travel. They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. They are feeling the extent of the dreadful human cost of his war of choice.”

*Read a full transcript of the RUSI Annual Security Lecture