RUSI and SOC ACE Programme launch new ‘State Threats’ report

The research paper, which is entitled ‘Old Wine in New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats’ and authored by RUSI senior associate Fellow Matthew Redhead, examines the growing range of overt and covert threats from hostile state actors that face the UK and its allies, from commercial espionage and transnational repression through to ‘cybotage’ and malign political influence.

Importantly, the document argues that, although spying, sabotage and subversion are as old as history, they are now becoming the ‘weapons of choice’ for hostile actors.

Key points highlighted

Key points outlined in the research paper are as follows:

*the incredible range and volume of covert hostile activities being undertaken by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and which do not receive the necessary degree of attention

*the increasing willingness of these states to innovate and take higher risks in exploiting the vulnerabilities of free societies

*the growing tendency of hostile states to use more violent, dangerous and disruptive measures, duly ushering in a new period of ‘state terrorism’ to come

*these states’ use of old-fashioned and hi-tech techniques where tried-and-tested methods of human intelligence collection are combined with modern cyber tools

*their growing use of ‘whole of society’ efforts, mobilising tycoons and business contractors, as well as criminals, mercenaries, extremists and terrorists in order to execute hostile state policy

While focusing primarily on four core states of concern, the report also reveals the spreading use of hostile covert activity, notably so in the Middle East and Asia, arguing that a perceived decline of Western power, in parallel with increased instances of reckless hostile states, combines to encourage other state actors in following suit.

Geopolitical climate change

Reflecting on the key findings within, the report’s author Matthew Redhead (who’s a financial crime consultant as well as a researcher) said: “Current geopolitical climate change points to a world where underhand hostile state acts become the norm rather than the exception. Although Governments are starting to take action to improve their resilience, they also need to ask what more can be done proactively to tackle the growing threat.”

RUSI’s State Threats Task Force aims to support the UK and its partners in detecting, understanding, attributing and responding to the spectrum of complex state threats currently facing democracies. Through a range of activities and other outputs, the overall objective of the State Threats Task Force is to deepen understanding of the dynamics of non-military state threats and offer ideas for realistic policy responses for both the UK and its allies.

The SOC ACE Programme aims to help ‘unlock the black box of political will’ for tackling serious organised crime, illicit finance and transnational corruption through research that informs politically feasible and technically sound interventions and strategies.

Funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, SOC ACE is a new component in the ACE Programme alongside Global Integrity ACE and SOAS ACE.

SOC ACE is managed by academic professionals at the University of Birmingham, working in collaboration with a number of leading research organisations and through consultation and engagement with key stakeholders.